NITROGEN Doomsday!
In this mind-blowing episode, we explore how one man's quest to create artificial fertilizer transformed the trajectory of human history. Inspired by listener Martin from Frankfurt, we dive into the story of Fritz Haber, whose discovery of the Haber-Bosch process for synthesizing ammonia not only revolutionized agriculture and saved billions from starvation but also fueled the rise of chemical weapons in World War I. From explosive bat guano to the delicate balance of ding-dongs and Twinkies, we unravel the complex web connecting fertilizer, food production, and the very bombs that shaped the 20th century. Brace yourself for a wild ride through the unintended consequences of scientific breakthroughs!
Here’s Martin’s email to us which includes lots more information and links to learn more about his intriguing IF!
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From: Martin
Subject: A world without NH3 (a What The If idea)I had another idea for a potential IF, or - to give credit where credit is due - my colleague Thomas has it. He read that BASF in Germany has sold an NH3 (ammonia) plant in Ludwigshafen (their main production site) after having produced NH3 there since 1913 It was the first industrial plant that realized the -then- completely new Haber-Bosch process. So Thomas asked: what (the if) would a world without NH3 look like? Then we started discussing :-)
It's sort of chemist's lore that Haber and Bosch tested many, many catalysts before they found a good one to combine N2 and H2 to NH3. Some sources put the number of tested catalyst formulations to as many as 2500 (https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/chemistry/haber-bosch-process#:~:text=In%20order%20to%20find%20a,Germany%2C%20now%20part%20of%20Ludwigshafen). What if they lost interest after test #1000 (and never found the iron-based catalyst that was ultimately the one)? Probably this (hypothetical) failed attempt on large scale would deter other groups of scientists at that time to even start their own catalyst developments? Anyhow, let's assume there has never been an industrial NH3 synthesis process in our "What the If" world.
It's quite obvious that agriculture would have been very different.
Our World in Data has the key answer here: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-population-with-and-without-fertilizer — without ammonia as fertilizer we would be able to feed max 4 bn people (instead 8). So many more famines? Or slower population growth?
Certainly a different diet, less feed for animals, and more plants that can fixate N2 from the atmosphere. Our World in Data has a little fun with that: (https://ourworldindata.org/how-many-people-does-synthetic-fertilizer-feed#could-we-have-achieved-the-same-without-synthetic-nitrogen) more peas and beans (and some others — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Nitrogen-fixing_crops — including lupines — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lupinus#Uses — which leads -of course- directly to one of my favorite Monty Python sketches "Dennis Moore"). Not nice. I wouldn't survive the season, that's for sure (no / less fruits and other vegetables)
Side note: I was surprised that per capita for many decades (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fertilizer-per-capita?tab=chart&country=OWID_WRL~OWID_EUR~CHN~IND~EGY~NLD~DEU~USA) the Western world had significantly higher values than Africa, India, Egypt. So without NH3 Europe / USA would have suffered more), probably more focus has to be put on bringing food on the table for everyone and less activities in new technologies etc. (basically staying longer at the bottom levels of Maslow's pyramid of needs)
And then there is war.
NH3 was an important ingredient to make TNT - some folks estimate that TNT has killed 100-150 million people in all wars combined.
TNT Is Still With Us | Science | AAAS
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/tnt-still-us Despite being an older explosive, TNT remains relevant due to its stability and relative safety compared to newer, more volatile alternatives. While TNT's detonation velocity is lower than newer explosives like RDX and CL-20, its ease of handling and manufacturing makes it a practical choice for many applications. This article explores the enduring utility of TNT in the realm of explosives.Casting TNT as an explosive | Nature Chemistry
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41557-023-01337-4 Few explosives are better-known to non-chemists than trinitrotoluene (TNT). Thomas M. Klapötke reflects on the enduring appeal of TNT and whether its starring role as an explosive is nearing its end.How a century of ammonia synthesis changed the world
https://www.iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2008.Erisman-et-al_NatureGeo.pdf On 13 October 1908, Fritz Haber filed his patent on the “synthesis of ammonia from its elements” for which he was later awarded the 1918 Nobel Prize in Chemistry. A hundred years on we live in a world transformed by and highly dependent upon Haber–Bosch nitrogen.Nitrate | International Encyclopedia of the First World War (WW1)
https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/nitrate#:~:text=With%20the%20trade%20of%20saltpeter,Britain%2C%20and%20the%20United%20States Until 1914 natural nitrates were the most important source for the production of fertilizers and explosives. Beginning in 1883, the main nitrate reservoirs were controlled by Chile, which produced almost 80 percent of world nitrogen. The First World War spurred Germany to develop synthetic nitrogen, which ended Chile’s monopoly of world nitrates.Another side note: before NH3 synthesis was developed mainly guano (and naturally occurring saltpeter) from South America was imported e.g. to Germany to be used as fertilizer and as feed for explosives. Once WW1 started, there was an embargo of exports and Germany concentrated on NH3 (https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/nitrate).
So how would war look without NH3? Without bombs? Maybe wars become more bloody with hand-to-hand combat or using poison gas (another expertise of Mr. Haber)? On the other hand, maybe more wars to guarantee access to valuable bird excrements and other nitrate reservoirs such as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_the_Pacific ? Or manure would suddenly become a hot commodity?
A world without NH3 seems increasingly gloomy...
(final side note: Thomas mentioned that 2024 is also the 200th anniversary of Beethoven's 9th symphony which includes the Ode an die Freude (Ode to Joy), listening to it is (in my books) a remarkably uplifting experience). But we could not find a way to combine both ideas - no NH3, 200 years of Ode to Joy... except the rather macabre vision that hungry peasants and farmers after yet another day of low crop yields gather around a campfire and sing together the Ode to Joy during the last light of the setting sun ☀️ to hope for better days to come.
All the best,
Martin
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Keep On IFFin',
Philip, Matt & Gaby
